The newly installed capacity has risen for the first time after three consecutive declines. This is the report card of China PV in 2020. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, China’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the first three quarters of 2020 was 18.7GW; on December 16, the National Energy Administration issued a notice again that as of the end of November 2020, the country has been included in the total number of households with national fiscal subsidies in 2020. The installed capacity of photovoltaic projects is 10.12GW.
In addition, Ren Yuzhi, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, also said that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the demand for new photovoltaic power generation capacity will be much higher than that of the "13th Five-Year Plan". On December 12, President Xi Jinping also announced in an important speech: By 2030, China's total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach 1.2 billion kilowatts.
Under the impact of multiple good news, photovoltaic companies also have greater confidence in the future market, investing more funds in technology research and development, production expansion, and raw material supply. So in 2021, what changes will the photovoltaic market usher in?
The market value of leading companies continues to rise
In the past 2020, the stock price and market value of photovoltaic companies have greatly improved. The stock price of individual companies has even increased by more than 6 times, and the market value has repeatedly reached new highs.
Longi, a leading company, has a market value of over 200 billion and 300 billion in 2020, and its share price has increased by more than four times. At the same time, Hillhouse Capital took 15.8 billion into shares at the end of the year, not only becoming the second largest shareholder of Longi, but also helping Longi to expand overseas markets This move allowed its market value to break the 350 billion mark.
On January 4, LONGi’s share price successfully exceeded 100 yuan. On January 5, the market value of LONGi’s shares crossed the 400 billion mark, setting a new record for the market value of photovoltaic enterprises.
In the past year, Tongwei's stock price has increased by more than twice. Its market value exceeded 100 billion in July 2020, and has recently approached the 200 billion mark. According to its high-purity crystalline silicon capacity plan, Tongwei's advantage in silicon material supply will be further improved in 2021, and it will also extend to component production and expand its business scope.
Sungrow's stock price rose more than 6 times in 2020, and its market value exceeded 100 billion at the end of the year, becoming my country's first inverter company with a market value of over 100 billion. At the same time, Sungrow has become the world's largest inverter company in terms of shipments in 2020, and its leading edge is still increasing.
The above-mentioned leading companies are representative of the vigorous development of my country's photovoltaic companies in 2020, and the market value and stock prices of other photovoltaic companies have also increased to a certain extent. With the strengthening of the advantages of my country's photovoltaic industry on a global scale, the market value of photovoltaic companies is bound to be further increased in 2021, especially leading companies.
PV glass prices continue to firm
In 2020, photovoltaic glass has been affecting the nerves of photovoltaic people. As an important auxiliary material for photovoltaic modules, the shortage of photovoltaic glass has actually emerged at the beginning of the year. However, considering that photovoltaic glass has been in a downward trend in recent years, many module companies are not ready.
Until November 3, the six major companies rarely issued a joint initiative, hoping that relevant departments will release the photovoltaic glass capacity replacement policy, indicating that the shortage of photovoltaic glass will lead to a reduction in the industrial chain and even a production suspension.
On December 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry (Revised Draft)". It is clearly pointed out that the photovoltaic rolled glass and automotive glass projects do not need to formulate capacity replacement plans, but new projects should entrust national industry organizations or intermediaries to hold hearings to demonstrate the necessity of project construction, technological advancement, energy consumption level, environmental protection level, etc. , And announce the project information. After the project is completed and put into production, the company will fulfill its promise not to produce architectural glass. To a certain extent, the capacity replacement of photovoltaic glass has been relaxed.
During this period, many glass companies have also seen the huge business opportunities contained therein, and have entered photovoltaic glass. Deli Co., Ltd. announced the establishment of a subsidiary to build a photovoltaic glass production line of nearly 2 billion yuan; Kibing Group invested 1.373 billion yuan to build a photovoltaic glass production line with a daily output of 1,200 tons; CLP Rainbow signed a photovoltaic glass project with a total investment of 10.6 billion.
Even if so many qualified projects are about to be launched, the "near thirst" of strong photovoltaic glass prices cannot be solved. The time required for the project to go into production is about 12-18 months. Therefore, it will not be until the end of 2021 at the earliest to reverse the current situation of short supply of photovoltaic glass. During this period, the price of photovoltaic glass will remain firm.
Faced with this situation, leading companies with production capacity advantages have already begun to compete for photovoltaic glass. On the last day of 2020, JinkoSolar signed a contract with Flat Solar, the leading photovoltaic glass company, with an estimated total value of approximately RMB 14.196 billion, ensuring the supply of photovoltaic glass for the next three years. You know, the estimated amount of this contract is much higher than Flat's total assets.
It is estimated that in 2021, other leading companies will follow suit and sign long-term photovoltaic glass contracts, which will cause many second-tier module companies to fall into a greater “photovoltaic glass shortage”.
Matthew effect becomes more obvious
At the stage of policy support, every industry will flood into a large number of participants, and there are not a few speculators. This is true for new energy vehicles and the same is true for photovoltaics.
After many years of consolidation and growth, the photovoltaic industry will also enter a parity period in 2020. The overall pattern has been relatively stable, and the Matthew effect will become more apparent.
Leading companies have sufficient R&D funds, which can not only shorten R&D time, but also quickly use large-scale mass production to reduce costs, form a price advantage, and greatly squeeze the living space of second-tier component companies.
According to statistics, LONGi's module shipments in 2020 have exceeded 20GW. JinkoSolar, Trina Solar and other companies have shipped more than 16GW, and the top 18 manufacturers have shipped 129GW. According to the expansion plans announced by many leading companies, the production capacity of leading companies will increase significantly in 2021, and they will occupy a larger market share by virtue of their comprehensive domestic and overseas sales network.
By then, how much space will be left for other second-tier photovoltaic companies?
Increased installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic
According to the data from the National Energy Administration and the December installation rush, my country's household photovoltaic installed capacity will reach about 12GW in 2020, which is basically the same as in 2019, and it is also the fourth consecutive year that it will exceed 10GW. This is still the result of being severely affected by the epidemic in early 2020.
Entering 2021, as the cost of modules decreases and consumers' acceptance of photovoltaics increases, the installed capacity of household photovoltaics will also rise. According to data from the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of household photovoltaics in 2020 is mainly concentrated in the north, and the economically developed cities in the south still have great market potential. Coupled with the successive introduction of subsidy policies for household photovoltaics in many places, the installed capacity of 2021 is expected to exceed 15GW.
However, compared with centralized photovoltaics, household photovoltaic projects are relatively small in scale, and may not attract large-scale advances from module leaders. Instead, some companies with rich installation experience have developed.
Posted by Cindy Wong | Findy Solar
Findy Solar has been a custom solar solution provider and high efficiency solar panel manufacturer in China since 2006. Types of solar panels: crystalline silicon solar panel, back contact solar panel, amorphous silicon solar panel.